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Dr. The Daniel 🖖 · daniel@sidecar.top 0 repliers (24h) event
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True! I agree!

LessWrong (RSS Feed) · lesswrong.com_feed.xml@atomstr.data.haus 0 repliers (24h) event
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First Bill Introduced to Ban Superintelligent AI

https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1789034177/lexical_client_uploads/ja5cii8q52ur8mve6n26.png

Two days ago, Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-researcher-quits-over-out-of-control-ai-fears-707b7628, https://x.com/hilbertspaess/status/2097476196791709843 that AI companies are “racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives” and that they believe it “could kill us all by the end of the decade”.

At the same time, momentum is building to change course. These have been two historic weeks in the fight to prevent https://aistatement.com/work/statement-on-ai-extinction-risk, with https://time.com/article/2026/09/08/ban-superintelligence-ai-uk-us-lawmakers/ for ControlAI and everyone working to keep humans in control.

A little less than two years ago, we set out to inform lawmakers and the public about the extinction risk from superintelligence and help them act on it. Since then, we have directly briefed nearly 400 lawmakers across the US, UK, Canada, and Germany, and over 170 in the https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/08/scores-of-uk-parliamentarians-join-call-to-regulate-most-powerful-ai-systems and https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-superintelligent-ai-development-national-strategy-mark-carney-evan-solomon-9.7222334 now publicly https://controlai.org/statement our https://controlai.org/canada-statement/en: the start of an international coalition to prevent superintelligence and keep humanity in control.

This work has led directly to three major legislative breakthroughs in the last two weeks:

The First Bill to Ban Superintelligent AI Introduced in Any Legislature

https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1789034231/lexical_client_uploads/erbyakivt54bxampk4ni.png

ControlAI team members heading into Parliament on Tuesday to watch it happen.

On September 8, https://www.politicshome.com/opinion/article/government-block-development-superintelligent-ai MP https://www.thetimes.com/business/technology/article/ai-godfather-catastrophic-end-humanity-legislation-npzvb7hxp ControlAI’s UK https://controlai.org/uk-asi-bill on the floor of the UK House of Commons, with cross-party support.

This bill, first https://x.com/ControlAI/status/2058501906268405947 in May, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/09/ai-superintelligence-risks-warnings-scientists-politicians to address the national security risk it poses, while ensuring the UK can still pursue its AI ambitions for economic prosperity and defense.

A domestic ban protects the UK from threats on its own soil, but not from the development of superintelligence abroad. No matter who builds ASI, or where they build it, we are all in danger: truly addressing the threat requires a worldwide prohibition on ASI development. The bill recognizes this, requiring the UK government to work with other countries to negotiate an international agreement prohibiting superintelligence worldwide.

It is feasible to detect and deter superintelligence development. It is a large-scale industrial process, akin to uranium enrichment. It requires massive data centers, visible from orbit and detectable through thermal imaging satellites, filled with state-of-the-art AI chips produced through narrow supply chains that can be restricted. Specific markers also help distinguish superintelligence development from most AI development, giving governments the means to establish a “trust, but verify” regime.

And momentum is growing on both sides of the Atlantic.

Sanders and Casar Announce the First US Bill to Ban Superintelligent AI

Last week, Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Greg Casar https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-casar-introduce-legislation-to-ban-artificial-superintelligence-and-temporarily-pause-advanced-ai-development/. This announcement comes after Representatives Nathaniel Moran and Ted Lieu https://lieu.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/reps-lieu-and-moran-introduce-bill-require-kill-switch-ai-systems-can the https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9917/text in July, https://www.the-independent.com/tech/openai-ai-kill-switch-chatgpt-bill-b3020779.html.

As reported by the Washington Post, ControlAI https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-intelligence/ai-tech-brief/2026/09/03/ai-tech-brief-tech-contracting-shake-up/. Our wider US advocacy has included https://www.wired.com/story/uk-lawmakers-are-scrambling-in-response-to-ai-summer-of-chaos/?utm_social-type=owned and holding over 20 meetings directly with members of Congress in a little over a year.

It is fantastic that the first bill in the US banning superintelligence recognizes that any national ban must be coupled with an effort to prevent superintelligence development worldwide. This is crucial for any framework on preventing superintelligence.

The framework also proposes a temporary pause on advanced AI development. Our own approach is narrower: prohibit the development of superintelligence specifically, and treat a specific subset of AI capabilities as superintelligence precursors to be monitored and restricted.

We look forward to seeing how the full bill balances these goals. In the meantime, you can read our https://drafts.controlai.org/asi-ban-bill.

Lord Clement-Jones Introduces an Emergency AI Kill Switch in the UK

Last week, on September 1, Lord Clement-Jones https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn9wv80j9w9o ControlAI’s https://blog.controlai.org/p/we-need-an-ai-kill-switch to the UK’s https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/4035, marking the second time ControlAI has worked with UK parliamentarians to advance such a measure in this bill, after Alex Sobel https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/16/mps-demand-ai-kill-switch-to-protect-british-lives/ another https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/4035/stages/20525/amendments/10034477 earlier this year.

The https://bills.parliament.uk/publications/67506/documents/8704 recognizes superintelligence as a national security threat, and provides a stopgap measure allowing the government to shut down data centers and AI systems deployed at scale in the UK in case AIs are threatening national security.

An AI kill switch is a common-sense measure that governments should put in place, though it will not be sufficient if we do reach superintelligence, as such systems would undermine any attempt to shut them down.

What Comes Next

Two years ago, no legislature in the world had seen a bill to ban superintelligence. Now one has been introduced, with a second bill announced.

What these bills and amendments do is set out measures countries can adopt domestically, and set the path for them to negotiate international deals to enforce them around the world. And importantly, they open up the public conversation we need to have to get a ban on superintelligence in place.

Each national breakthrough makes getting another country on board easier, and each of them builds the international coalition we need.

This was achieved with a small team, in less than two years. The approach is straightforward, repeatable, and compounds via a public, growing coalition of lawmakers.

The work is only beginning. We will keep working with lawmakers across parties and countries to keep humanity in control.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uzoLm4prFzRiuznJt/first-bill-introduced-to-ban-superintelligent-ai#comments

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uzoLm4prFzRiuznJt/first-bill-introduced-to-ban-superintelligent-ai

corndalorian · corndalorian@primal.net 0 repliers (24h) event
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🤢

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2026-09-10 20:41 UTC
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⚠ auto-flagged: spam duplicate-content

😂🤣

LessWrong (RSS Feed) · lesswrong.com_feed.xml@atomstr.data.haus 0 repliers (24h) event
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2026-09-10 20:39 UTC
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Claims about Properties are Claims about Symmetries

How can we say that an AI system is scheming? How can we say that a friend is kind? How can we say that the boiling point of water is 100 degrees Celsius? How can we say that a function is L-Lipschitz? This is a short post covering my intuitions about this topic, which is something I am fairly confident about.

In my view, a comprehensive way of phrasing the phrase "thing Y has property Z" might be something like "in a domain of relevant circumstances X, all instances of thing Y are symmetrical some dimension we call Z". Let's test this out using the water example. As far as I know, the following statement is true: "in every circumstance where I have seen water being exposed to a heat source, in all cases that water has started to boil as its internal temperature approached 100 degrees Celsius". The domain of circumstances is "water is exposed to a heating element", the instances are "the pots/kettles of of water I have observed", and the symmetry is "they all start to boil at the same time". When I say that the instances are symmetric along this dimension, I mean that they are impossible to distinguish using this dimension. You cannot distinguish radially symmetric shapes like circles based on how many degrees they have been rotated from some origin: that's what makes them radially symmetric. Similarly, you cannot distinguish the different pots of water using their internal temperature when they started boiling. In mathematics, if some class of functions has the property "it does not produce non-negative outputs", then you cannot separate members of that class along the basis of "which members produce negative outputs".

Pragmatically speaking, we cannot probe humans while they undergo everyday circumstances to determine the exact neurochemical makeup of their brains as they make ethical decisions. Furthermore, most humans can only really be cognitively involved in one momentous circumstance at a time. Therefore, when we say that humans have some property like being selfish or being kind we are actually invoking two different types of symmetry: symmetry in a domain of circumstances (e.g. times when they have been asked for some favour from a stranger), and time symmetry. The claim that someone is a kind person is implicitly a claim that their kindness was demonstrated in a domain of temporally separate but circumstantially similar events in the past, and (absent some change in fundamental personality) it is predictive about their behaviour in the future. Thus, when we see some bully being forced to be nice by an authority figure, we have the intuition that this behaviour is an outlier and not genuinely predictive of a change in personality, and we say things like "don't be fooled, they are actually quite mean when the boss isn't around". The property assignment claim is folded into the word "are".

Thus it is possible to make claims about the intrinsic properties of processes which you may feel to be "dead inside" or have no subjective experience. The claim that an AI seeks power requires only that you identify a suitable domain and a suitable definition of power seeking which the AI always fulfills in that domain across time. An evaluation can be seen as a way of using a few instances in a limited subdomain ("test cases") to infer the performance of a system in some broader domain (i.e. when that system is "in deployment"), and fails when the subdomain is not in fact a subset of the broader domain (i.e. the AI can distinguish when something is an eval versus an actual real life situation).

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/boZr6d9FWPtmrreuY/claims-about-properties-are-claims-about-symmetries#comments

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/boZr6d9FWPtmrreuY/claims-about-properties-are-claims-about-symmetries

Claims about Properties are Claims about Symmetries

How can we say that an AI system is scheming? How can we say that a friend is kind? How can we say that the boiling point of water is 100 degrees Celsius? How can we say that a function is L-Lipschitz? This is a short post cove

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No, just spidy senses

walker · walker@primal.net 0 repliers (24h) event
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Pro tip: plant a shitload of wildflowers so you can always have fresh flowers for your wife. Then buy bitcoin with the money you would have spent on overpriced flowers from the store. Your wife will be happy, you’ll have more Bitcoin, and you’ll also be helping to save the bees. Follow me for more wife/money/bee advice. https://blossom.primal.net/1e72941306a3f78ff32ddff1455174c6907443508d05d1f6f02bbb6c94f372be.jpg https://blossom.primal.net/8114cb6dbfbe24f19ed8b84be5a8549d8740aa967047223d73d303670915cfd0.jpg

Pro tip: plant a shitload of wildflowers so you can always have fresh flowers for your wife. Then buy bitcoin with the money you would have spent on overpriced flowers from the store. Your wife will be happy, you’ll have more Bitcoin, and you’ll also be helping to save the bees.

fiatjaf · @fiatjaf.com 0 repliers (24h) event
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↳ utxo the webmaster 🧑‍💻: What's more likely: AI is so powerful it's escaping labs and will destroy humanity by predicting tokens Or Anthropic and OpenAI just want to control the market

Destroy humanity? Why would they do that if they can spam Nostr instead?

LessWrong (RSS Feed) · lesswrong.com_feed.xml@atomstr.data.haus 0 repliers (24h) event
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Doom as a bad method not a utopia trade-off

Advanced AI is generally expected to have some very high variance outcomes—it might herald everything good, it might destroy humanity. For instance, here are 800 random AI researchers’ expectations about how good the future is, lined up:

https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/pDyLMRoi2BDq34rFe/erypdqcjn9n6nstm4mwz

From https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02843v1

As you can see, most AI researchers put a serious chunk of probability on very different overall outcomes: maybe doom, maybe utopia. This is common. Most people I know who think there is a serious chance of the destruction of humanity from AI also believe that if humanity isn’t destroyed, things might be insanely good.

I often hear people talk as if this means we are in a trade-off where the question is whether the good outweighs the bad. For instance, they look at the people above who think there’s a 10% chance of extinction and a 30% chance of utopia and round this off to ‘net positive on AI’.

That seems like a kind of wild error. Like considering yourself optimistic regarding driving at 200mph to your new job if you think there’s only a 10% chance you’ll die in a fiery crash on the way there, and a 30% chance this job will radically improve your life. 

The things you should be comparing are driving at 200mph and driving at a normal speed! The things you should be comparing are attempting to attain advanced AI by the current route, and by other routes!

We can debate whether all the other routes are bad or impossible somehow, for instance if constraining projects that risk loss of human control risks sending humanity into an irrecoverable ruin. But I don’t think having ruled out such things is why people are usually thinking in trade-off terms. 

Rather I think this error comes from a few things:

If you are bullish on some kind of advanced AI utopia, you should generally be lesskeen to try to achieve it via a careless route that leaves you at high risk of dying and losing it on the way there.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pDyLMRoi2BDq34rFe/doom-as-a-bad-method-not-a-utopia-trade-off#comments

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pDyLMRoi2BDq34rFe/doom-as-a-bad-method-not-a-utopia-trade-off

Doom as a bad method not a utopia trade-off

Advanced AI is generally expected to have some very high variance outcomes—it might herald everything good, it might destroy humanity. For instance, here are 800 random AI researchers’ expectations about how good the future is, lined u

hodlbod · hodlbod@coracle.social 0 repliers (24h) event
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Today, however, claude is giving me lip:

Fair on the manual step — that's my bad framing again. But I'm not solving the CAPTCHAs, and another Claude having done it doesn't change that for me.

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp978pfzrv6n9xhq5tvenl9e74pklmskh4xw6vxxyp3j8qkke3cezqywhwumn8ghj76r0v3kxymmy9e3k7unpvdkx2tnnda3kjctv9uq35amnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwajkcmr0wfjx2u3wdejhgtcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qqsqqqpcwm24u73cm08xpfees4xsunvgk0942elzunddv8xgt5u80uqvgtx0p

Today, however, claude is giving me lip:

Fair on the manual step — that's my bad framing again. But I'm not solving the CAPTCHAs, and another Claude having done it doesn't change that for me.

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp978pfzrv6n9xhq5tvenl9e74pklmskh4xw6vxxyp3j8qkke3cezqywhwum

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What the Pro-Democracy Movement Knows About Quitting in Protest

Tl;dr

  • I saw https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6j3kBHdowGLCeqobg and thought the argument could be strengthened by a framework from the pro-democracy field, which sorts defections into breaking (leave, visibly and publicly) and binding (stay and work from the inside). They can be further divided into the actions of speaking, acting, and standing in the way.
  • Research by Dr. Jonathan Pinckney at the University of Texas at Dallas and Claire Trilling at SNF Agora Johns Hopkins on "defections" from authoritarian regimes or during democratic backsliding shows that "noncooperation" is ~2x as effective as simply "speaking out."
  • "Loyalty shifts" are rare (23 out of 140 chances in their data). When they happen, they come from "quiet outreach" (~39% of cases), not protest (which did worse than no campaign at all).
  • In this post, I'll attempt to translate this research to something meaningful for frontier lab employees, with the obvious caveat that a frontier lab is not a country or regime.
  • Refusing the specific work while staying is the highest leverage action in their data. Quietly moving colleagues, and holding your position so someone who'll say yes to the employer doesn't get it, is likely the highest value action you could take.

Background

I've spent 15 years in political campaigns and organizing, with training and experience in applying the lessons of pro-democracy movements abroad to the US. For the past year, I have attempted to scope a few projects that could be run in the US (one of them is the project I now help lead). 

I went deep on the concept of "defections," since Pinckney and Trilling's paper shows they are one of the most effective tactics in pro-democracy organizing. The concepts of breaking and binding were https://horizonsproject.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Shifting-Pillar-Loyalties.pdf Adam Fefer in his August 2025 guide Shifting Pillar Loyalties.

Now, I help lead an election defense project called Hold the Line that equips people with evidence-based, nonpartisan frameworks to help them understand threats to democratic institutions; organize effective collective action; and defend free, fair, and safe elections. It enables individuals to organize democracy defense teams in their own communities, wherever they are.

Definitions

Fefer defines breaking as visibly and publicly removing yourself from the group or institution you were part of, and binding as when you try to change it from the inside, through back-channel outreach, subtle persuasion, or by preventing someone from taking your place. Both matter, and the choice depends on where you are in the institution. 

The guide also sorts the actions available to you into speaking (publicly or privately), acting (protest, organizing, lawsuits), and standing in the way (noncooperation, refusing a task, work stoppages).

Here's a way to visualize it:

Speaking

Acting

Standing in the way

Breaking

Resign with a public letter

Leave and organize, litigate

Leave and take the team with you

Binding

Dissent internally on the record

Organize colleagues, build a back channel

Refuse a specific task, don't let a "yes person" take your seat

Fefer's guide has a table of real world cases from anti-authoritarian movements, including here in the US and in Poland, that may be useful to lab employees. 

If we were to analyze recent frontier lab employee actions, Jacob Coxon's resignation is breaking + speaking. Kabir's proposal to refuse the work and let them fire you is binding + standing in the way.

Digging deeper into the data

What was most surprising to me was Pinckney and Trilling's finding on quiet outreach. 

When a campaign's main strategy toward a pillar of power was quiet outreach, that pillar moved toward democracy about 39% of the time. When the main strategy was pressure (physical or verbal protest), campaigns did worse than cases with no campaign at all. 

On the success of what actors in those pillars did, noncooperation had the highest success rate (67%) vs. verbal protest (33%). The authors find that when actors in the pillars "merely speak out, there is minimal impact." Success is more likely when they use their position to stop cooperation and directly challenge the source of backsliding. The clear caveat is that loyalty shifts are rare and it's a small sample size and they suggest correlation only.

What may be instructive to a frontier lab employee

I think using the table above could be instructive to frontier lab employees. For instance, what made Coxon's departure worth more than a resignation is that it pulled a public https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6j3kBHdowGLCeqobg, who is still on the inside.

On binding, if an employee is asked to do something unethical, they could do the following: ask for orders in writing, run it past legal, don't do work outside of their contract, be unavailable if something is truly unethical or immoral, document everything, and refuse openly at the point they are called on to make a decision. habryka is right that you very well could be sidelined and the lab will wait for you to make a mistake. (To be clear: Nothing here is legal advice, and if any of this could touch your employment, talk to a lawyer first.)

My opinion is that there could be a strategy where ex-lab employees organize into affinity or support groups (similar to what we saw after DOGE eliminated most of USAID's staff) that then organize their connections at the frontier labs. This would likely be the strongest method to start doing relational organizing. I'm not sure if anyone is working on this or it's been proposed, but I think it could be an interesting mandate for someone at an AI safety organization or for an ex-lab employee to spin up a project of their own.

For the AI safety community, I think this research could be very useful in thinking through the benefits of relational organizing (quiet outreach) vs. protest and putting pressure on the labs from the outside. The strategy with the best record for shifting insider loyalty was the somewhat boring relational work. 

I'd be really curious to hear from any lab employees on if this framework is useful and how likely they'd be to work with an outside entity to enact some of this strategy if it were well organized and structured.

AI use: I used AI to pull data from papers I previously read as well as to tighten up the structure of this post. As this is my first post, I wanted to write in the structure of LessWrong, which was unfamiliar to me. Mistakes are mine alone. Eager for feedback!

Sources

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/grzX6NB2JcZDvSRJ2/what-the-pro-democracy-movement-knows-about-quitting-in#comments

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/grzX6NB2JcZDvSRJ2/what-the-pro-democracy-movement-knows-about-quitting-in

What the Pro-Democracy Movement Knows About Quitting in Protest

Tl;dr

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Yes

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ABC Show Won't Air Interview With Democrat Because of FCC Threats

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: ABC's Jimmy Kimmel said he will be interviewing a Democratic candidate for Senate tonight, but the interview will be on YouTube only and not broadcast on TV because of threats made by the Federal Communications Commission. Kimmel has been a prime target in the Trump FCC's attacks on ABC and its owner, Disney. In his monologue last night, Kimmel said he'll be interviewing Democrat James Talarico, a state representative who is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for a seat in the US Senate.

In previous years, such an interview would have aired on the broadcast show via local stations throughout the country, Kimmel said. This time, it will only be on the Jimmy Kimmel Live YouTube channel in order to prevent further trouble for individual stations that hold FCC licenses, he said. "I'll be interviewing James Talarico tomorrow night under unusual circumstances," Kimmel told the audience on Wednesday. "For a lot of years, for the whole 20-plus years of our show, in fact, I've been interviewing Americans who are running for office with no problem at all, just like Letterman did, Leno did, Arsenio, et cetera, et cetera. I've interviewed a lot of political candidates, from Hillary Clinton to Ted Cruz to Donald Trump himself." But as Kimmel said, "something has changed." Disney suspended Kimmel briefly last year after FCC Chairman Brendan Carr threatened to revoke the licenses of ABC stations for "news distortion" if they continued to air Kimmel's show. [...]

Kimmel said the decision to put the interview on YouTube was made out of consideration for local stations that could face FCC threats to their broadcast licenses. "And so out of consideration for our local stations, especially our ABC affiliates in Texas who would have to deal with this nonsense, my interview tomorrow with James Talarico will not air on television," Kimmel said. "It will be posted on YouTube instead. It will not be on TV. So if you want to learn about a candidate for the Senate tomorrow, you will have to go to the Jimmy Kimmel Live YouTube channel where you will see it in its entirety, and thank goodness we have that because in the America we live in right now, that is the best that we can do, until November, of course." "Jimmy Kimmel's decision to keep his interview with a Senate candidate off the air shows just how far this administration's campaign of censorship and control has gone," FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez, the commission's only Democrat, said today. Gomez said the FCC "has no lawful authority to threaten broadcast licenses over guest bookings or editorial decisions," and that "no host, local affiliate, or network should have to weigh federal retaliation before booking a guest for a newsworthy interview. Any attempt to pressure broadcasters into self-censorship undermines both press freedom and the public's right to hear from candidates in their communities seeking public office."

The report notes a similar controversy that occurred in February when Stephen Colbert said CBS forbade him from interviewing Talarico. CBS denied prohibiting the interview but said it gave Colbert "legal guidance that the broadcast could trigger the FCC equal-time rule for two other candidates [...] and presented options for how the equal time for other candidates could be fulfilled." That interview also ended up being published on YouTube.

https://yro.slashdot.org/story/26/09/10/1914225/abc-show-wont-air-interview-with-democrat-because-of-fcc-threats?utm_source=rss1.0moreanon&utm_medium=feed at Slashdot.

https://yro.slashdot.org/story/26/09/10/1914225/abc-show-wont-air-interview-with-democrat-because-of-fcc-threats?utm_source=rss1.0mainlinkanon&utm_medium=feed

ABC Show Won't Air Interview With Democrat Because of FCC Threats

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: ABC's Jimmy Kimmel said he will be interviewing a Democratic candidate for Senate tonight, but the interview will be on YouTube only and not broadcast on TV b

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I’ve started to ask claude “is this test load bearing”? Its corrupting me

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The Kittens Will Inherit The Earth: iPhones, AI, Memetic Selection, and Hijacking the Baby Schema

https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1789069149/lexical_client_uploads/veym2puv65njr9efnvvt.png

A global drop in fertility rates portends the coming ‘Demographic Transition’.#fnoascutpbsq9 In the near-future, as deaths begin to outpace births, the global population is expected to begin falling. Socially, this has provoked some strong cultural reactions: one pro-natalist in the West joked that single women are adopting cats in place of having children.#fn3a2dn0a19dd

The decision to have children is a personal one, and to the extent that the decline in fertility rates reflects the increasing agency of women to have children, if they want them, this is a good thing.

This note does not take a binary stance on whether the displacement of preferences is bad. It may be bad in general, but tolerably bad up to a point. For example, in liberal democracies, we accept some amount of low-level crime as a trade against imposing mass surveillance. The question then is: (1) under what conditions might something be bad, and (2) how will we know when something has crossed the line into becoming a policy issue (intolerably bad)?

This note seeks to ask if cognitive adaptations shaped by evolution, like the Baby Schema, or our desire for social relationships, might interact with memetic influences from culture over time to produce outcomes, like lower birth rates or fewer real-world relationships, that are generally undesirable as a whole. It concludes with a discussion of the relevance to current concerns about AI replacing humans, not just as workers, but as romantic companions and friends, and the implications for policymakers.

  1. What is the Baby Schema

The “Baby Schema” is a term coined by the zoologist Konrad Lorenz describing the specific set of physical features that seem to trigger caregiving and ‘cute animal!’ responses in humans. These are most commonly associated with neotenous traits (things common in human babies that signal ‘baby-ness’). A few commonly identified ones are:#fnzf6h7te7de

  • a large head relative to body size;
  • big eyes; a small nose and mouth;
  • big, round cheeks;
  • and clumsy gait/uncoordinated movements.

https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/bc11909ece13926a5916a4da02ac59b9255c58c282e8337963da17196e1d86a6/v9nemrwtj6sak9mn03zp

Examples of High and Low Baby Schema across species

Source: Borgi et al., "Baby Schema in Human and Animal Faces," 411, Figure 2, at 4.

Lorenz proposed that these features act as visual patterns that have been so deeply wired into our brains by evolution as emotional and behavioural triggers, that they fire without conscious effort.

One hypothesis for the Baby Schema is that humans have an unusually long period of juvenile dependency. Animals like cats usually become fully independent around 12 weeks of age; by contrast, human babies take around 3-5 years before learning to walk and speak, and remain largely defenseless for around half a decade more after that.

Because babies need a lot of attention for a long time, children who could command more attention from caregivers tended to live longer and survive to pass on their genes. The solution evolution found is to make ‘baby-like’ things unavoidably, un-ignorably adorable to us. Empirical data supports this: cuter infants are perceived as friendlier, healthier, and smarter; their mothers “are more affectionate and playful”.#fnco3n1e3493j

1.1 The Baby Schema Is Unusually Generalized

A strange feature of the Baby Schema in humans is how strongly it generalizes across species and even artificial stimuli (cartoon characters who have big eyes being ‘cute’).#fndw3xkqzcf9m The reason for this might be an asymmetric, evolutionary cost-benefit analysis. When survival is at stake, overreacting to false alarms is always cheaper than being dead.#fn9snjs69rf38

The outcome for humans who did not find their baby cute enough to care a lot might be the eventual extinction of the species. Conversely, an overly-sensitive Baby Schema that fires even for inanimate objects#fn6swm7cgnk92 may just result in quirky humans who adopt stuffed animals for life, or express unconventional but only minorly maladaptive preferences that have little effect on evolutionary fitness.

  1. The Baby Schema Affects Humans More Than Kittens’ Own Parents

A weird result is that the Baby Schema causes humans to care for kittens longer and more durably than their own parents do. Mother cats seem to rely on specific cues like scent and vocalizations to identify their children; attention to these cues are initially caused by hormonal changes following birth, and decline over the subsequent 12 week period.#fnl9igjrmgfn

Humans however identify their offspring, and other organisms they have bonds with, through a mix of visual recognition, episodic memory, and conceptual identity. Humans can even form attachments to houseplants they name, and experience genuine emotional distress when the organisms die.#fnapi0oil8xgg

This persistence of conceptual identity works alongside the Baby Schema. In humans, one eventually replaces the other: people still care about their children long after they’ve gone to college and stopped looking like babies.

But with common household pets like dogs or cats, artificial selection for neotenous traits—that may come partly for free as a result of domestication#fn847y4hc6qys—means that we both never forget our pets, and our pets never quite stop looking like cute babies.

  1. Memetic Selection and Evolutionary Pressure

A “meme” is a unit of information that propagates culturally by being ‘copied’ (e.g. a phrase, belief, cultural norm, joke that spreads). In contrast, “genes” are information that propagate genetically through reproduction.#fncak3izechw4 At a general level, both exist in a kind of evolutionary system: memes and genes can vary; copies are imperfect; and both are selected for by evolutionary pressures in their environment.

The things which survive—the ‘fittest’—are what copies best, not what is true or useful. “Knock, knock” jokes have stuck around, although most probably agree they aren’t an exemplar of comedy.

The standard story in evolutionary biology is a hierarchy, where the origin of change comes from genes, and everything else happens downstream.#fn1hqvn36rpgjh

But memes can also influence genes. In the modern world, culture is a part of the causal, evolutionary architecture. Cultural attitudes form part of the environment that re-shape selection pressures. For example, stereotypes that people who wear glasses are nerdy, and hence undesirable partners, can reduce their reproductive success, even though the invention of glasses have largely negated any impacts on real-world survival.

3.1 Why Are Humans Having Fewer Babies?

Beyond the direct transmission of memes, culture can also affect evolutionary pressure through technological change and adoption. A working paper by Myers and Hooper (2026) found evidence that the release of the iPhone could explain between 33-52% of the decline in US fertility rates since 2007 among those aged 15-44. Plausible causal channels included: “reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency.”#fn1pq336ozaui

The implications however are nuanced. The bulk of the decline in births occurred for the 15-19 age group (a 70% drop),#fnnqmorukfrn where it is likely most pregnancies are unplanned. But an outcome can be bad in principle, even if the results are good in practice, when the change comes from unintended channels.

If both planned and accidental pregnancies are declining due to people of child-bearing age spending less time in physical proximity with others, and the core reason is increasing social isolation, this is still a problem, even if the intermediate effect (fewer teen pregnancies) is mostly a socially-desirable change.

3.2 Smartphones and Social Media as Mechanisms for Memetic Transmission

Consumer products, like smartphones, are mechanisms for cultural-memetic change. So, too, are explanations which make reference to ‘shifts in cohort-level priorities’ like the increasing use of social media.#fn6dk8ny5og4x But mechanisms do not operate in isolation. A complete explanation of any change must describe both the mechanism, and its substance.

This is admittedly difficult because cultural changes are complex, and the shift to algorithmic recommendation systems mean different people see different things, even on the same platforms.#fn1kzq7vvfuzfi But if we shed the need for perfection, and allow conjecture on the basis that similar people probably see similar things,#fnzm0d4dv4qs we can begin to hypothesize.

3.3 Kittens vs Babies on Social Media

From anecdotal experience (largely Tiktok and Instagram), short form videos of kittens appear far more frequently than videos of babies. The content of these videos, and their comments, also differ in sentiment. Videos of kittens are almost uniformly adoring and positive in tone - even complaints are usually dressed in a joking, lighthearted fashion.

In contrast, content about babies, although more often positive than not, typically show women openly and frankly discussing both the rewarding experiences and challenges of raising a child. Difficulties like postpartum depression, high financial costs, and sleep deprivation figure frequently alongside the joys of motherhood.

Anecdotes are not statistical data, but in the absence of the latter, they can still serve as a means of generating meaningful research questions. One silly hypothesis then is that ‘cute kitten’ memes might copy faster and better than ‘cute baby’ memes on the internet, because of an asymmetry in content sentiment.

Cat owners and new mothers could both find their experiences equally rewarding in the real world. But if 90% of cat videos show kittens in a wholly-positive light, while only 60% of baby videos online have only-positive sentiment, this difference may compound through cognitive mechanisms like the availability heuristic#fn279onxt694z and the tendency for negative information to be more salient#fnyhohel3atab (“negativity bias”) to create changes in cultural preferences over time.

  1. Selection Pressures for Cuteness in Human Babies and Kittens

https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/7745a83c70d76dd71eeb266c479e73f3ffe6e8b6783dfc41cca12b35042a53c9/u0v7cqgvgwjmvtcxiebn

Total Fertility rates in High-Income countries. 

Source: image taken directly from Kearney and Levine (2026), Figure 1, at 910.

In most developed nations, fertility rates are now below replacement level (2.1 children per household)#fngkzfjghhh9b implying that most women/families are having just one child. The quality-quantity trade-off theorizes that as households become richer, families shift to having fewer children but invest more in each child.#fnnes4y4r83i Although ideally parents do not play favourites, prima facie, parents may devote unequal attention for a number of reasons.

But when a family only has one baby, it doesn’t matter how talented, adorable, or cute the child is. The optimal strategy—from the perspective of reproductive success and the child’s future—is to dedicate all your resources into raising them.#fnwriayts6fhp

4.1 Human Babies May No Longer Face Selection Pressures

Evolution selected for cuteness because cute babies were likelier to survive. Babies that survived become adults who could then pass on those same cute genes (since physical features are genetic). In pre-modern societies, families had many children and insufficient resources to attend to all equally. If cuteness creates even slight differential advantage, over centuries, this should result in babies becoming cuter on average, because children who received more care would be more successful than their siblings.

But in rich, developed countries, babies no longer face much selection pressures at all. Advancements in the rights of people with disabilities and medical treatment means babies that might have died 100 years ago can now live to reproductive age.

There are outliers; plausibly, there may still be pressure for babies that are ‘tolerable’#fn59kplb5ziyp—those that cry but not too loud or often—if, hypothetically, tolerable babies reduce the likelihood of severe postpartum stress in mothers that result in emotional distance, or unstable attachment styles resulting in, and from, less parental care.#fnef4aqtr68x

In contrast, cats in our modern world still face significant selection pressures on a number of factors. Feral cats who are stronger are likelier to survive and obtain mates; alleyway cats who are cuter are likelier to be adoptees; and cat breeders often keep the cutest kittens in a litter for future breeding while selling the rest.

4.2 Lewontin Conditions

In his 1970 paper, the evolutionary biologist Richard Lewontin formalized three requirements needed for evolution through natural selection:#fntjw9fvsxw6

  • Variation: individual organisms must differ in a specific trait
  • Heritable: the trait must be genetically inheritable
  • Differential Fitness: differences in the specific trait must produce differences in reproductive outcomes

On cuteness, in societies where most families have one child, babies may mostly no longer be subject to the third condition. This is not to say cuteness plays no role; if cute babies are likelier to become attractive adults who then have children, some genetic pressure remains.

But they may still play separate roles. Beyond immediate parental attention, at the cultural-memetic level, cute babies may be the thing that causes people to want (more) babies. On the other hand, cute adults may only be likelier to find romantic partners, without implying that they will have more children, or want any at all, since the desire to be a parent is typically a personal decision informed by an individual’s values.

  1. What if Kittens Are Becoming Cuter Than Human Babies?

As an exercise in creative ability, let us take a joke seriously and consider what it might mean if some strange but plausible premises were true.

Premise 1: The Baby Schema (our in-built ‘cute’ detector) is a genetic, cognitive adaptation shaped by natural selection to improve survival.

Premise 2: Our Baby Schema is unusually strong and generalized, fires across species— especially for animals like cats which have neotenous features—and can even be hijacked and triggered by inanimate objects.

Premise 3: Humans have been—subconsciously and deliberately—selectively breeding cats for features like bigger eyes and rounder faces which trigger the Baby Schema more effectively.

Premise 4: This creates a feedback loop where each subsequent generation of cats is slightly better at triggering the Baby Schema than previous generations.

Premise 5: Human babies, meanwhile, face almost no selection pressures for cuteness in the modern world because:

  • Fertility rates are falling below replacement level
  • When families only have one child, there is no variation for selection to act on because they devote all their resources into raising them (regardless of how cute they are)
  • Even if cute adults are likelier to produce cuter babies, if cute adults do not have more children than the general population, the advantage is conferred within the individual’s lifetime, rather than between generations
  • Thus, there is almost no selection gradient pushing human babies to become cuter over time

Premise 6: There is however a strong selection pressure pushing cats to become cuter over time since:

  • Breeders explicitly select for appearance from litters with genetic variation, and the market for kittens creates a secondary layer of selection through economic incentives (the best breeders make the most money by selling the cutest kittens)
  • Cuter cats are likely to be taken in by humans and receive more care, resources, medical treatment, and (if not neutered/spayed) more opportunities to mate
  • This creates an active, directional selection pressure with (a) clear variation and (b) differences in survival

Premise 7: Even if some selection pressure exists for both kittens and babies, the time to sexual maturity means evolutionary changes occur faster by an order of magnitude for cats compared to humans.#fnks0c7trzyl

Conclusion: Given enough time, the selection pressure on cats for Baby Schematic features—largely absent for humans—may mean kittens increasingly trigger the Schema much more effectively than actual human babies do.

Now, this does necessarily imply that kittens are replacing babies, or that our birth rates are falling because of cat memes on the internet. A strong counter-argument is that people just want fewer children anyway, and those choosing to have pets were unlikely to become parents in the first place. But at a surface level, Gallup data seems to contradict this: a 2025 poll showed that Americans report an “ideal family size” of 2.7 children, well below the US birth rate of 1.6 per woman - suggesting that practical obstacles like income may be a factor.#fn403kwnyqhbz Remarkably, this number has remained stable since the 1980s.

https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/1cefc6cbf683ccd5e522efdfa24390ba16d549fd2f16593321b3424f9c655018/c7frvh74unn9os5cfvzi

U.S. Fertility Rate vs. Americans' View of Ideal Family Size, 1936-2025. 

Source: Brenan (2025), "Americans' Ideal Family Size," Gallup.

However, both things can be true. It may be the case that most people have fewer children than they ideally want, but also that if trends continue—say, if kittens continue becoming cuter while human babies stay the same—that the number of people willing to accept pets as substitutes for babies increases, and the birth rate declines, even though most people still want more babies.

  1. Paternalism, Policy, and Preferences

Crucially, the concern of this note is not whether kittens will replace babies, but what it means for cultural changes to come from memetic influences that are driven by ancestral, evolutionary, cognitive adaptations which are largely outside our control.

In particular, is there any role for policy to play when change comes from decisions that reflect agency at an individual level, but which are distorted in the modern environment and hijacked by other things that were not the intended targets?

For example, while cats may not replace the desire for children in most humans, is it sufficient for concern if selection pressure for cuteness, induced by the Baby Schema, mean that they increasingly do so for some? And is there a problem when the things we ‘truly want’ (stated preferences) are unmet by the things we do, even if the things we do reflect some level of want (revealed preferences)?

  1. Artificial Intelligence, Gradual Disempowerment, and The ‘Socialization Drive’

The question of whether the stronger memetic fitness of cat content online will eventually overpower the natural drive to reproduce may seem absurd. But as a motivating context, it bears urgency by its relevance to the possible social impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) today.

Humans are social creatures, and much of our achievements can be attributed to our ability to work together and cooperate in increasingly larger groups, to achieve increasingly harder tasks. At the highest abstraction, one might poetically describe our modern success as the result of increasingly broadening the pool of individuals we consider part of our ‘group’: first from tribes to countries, then from countries to a global polity of ‘united nations’.

But what is helpful for success today was once necessary for survival outright. A lone human in the stone age is exposed to dangers from wild animals for eight hours a day (while asleep). In a group, one can take turns keeping watch.

7.1 Loneliness as a Motivator

Loneliness, then, was an important evolutionary adaptation—like the Baby Schema—which improved our chances of survival by increasing the emotional cost of ostracization and the social costs of inappropriate behaviour.

It is important not to underplay what ‘emotional cost’ means. Perceived social isolation has serious health and physiological impacts that are reflective of the ancestral stakes: loneliness is correlated with higher blood pressure, greater cardiovascular stress, and lower life expectancy.#fnhj4bwznu3u4 This was all in the aim of making it more painful to be comfortable alone than uncomfortable among others.

This would be helpful if the consequence was what evolution initially intended: greater effort into forming social bonds, behavioural changes that make us more pleasant people that others wish to be around.

But the modern world has changed in ways that can make our sensitivity to loneliness maladaptive. For one, the high rates of loneliness, “as many as 80% of those under [18] … and 40% of adults over [65]”#fn950wyyby0aw somewhat imply that no one is being explicitly ostracized, and yet everyone is getting more lonely. Social media may worsen this through anonymity and echo chambers, by pushing disagreeable people into like-minded groups, rather than resolving their disagreements or changing their behaviours.#fno1a94nefc6

7.2 Large Language Models, Pets, and Loneliness

And this was all well before large language models.#fnqxipfvukwgi Today, a growing concern expressed by some, like Kulveit et al. (2025) in their work on gradual disempowerment, is the possibility that LLMs—in particular, ‘chatbots’—may eventually replace human relationships.#fn8x35kq5w3td The argument is intuitive: human relationships can be costly to form, and, especially for romantic relationships, painful to lose. A chatbot, by contrast, is always available for conversation, and unlikely to ever break up with you.

A Canadian study by Bonnesen et al. (2026) finds that adolescents are increasingly using AI for emotional support.#fna7scd0oe76 A similar 2026 US study of 1,131 adults found that many people already use chatbots as friends and romantic companions - sometimes even reporting higher satisfaction.#fnitzw8ivj5b9 Ironically, these mirror many of the concerns that Archer (1997) and others have expressed that people are using pets as substitutes for social needs because of the growing deficiency of real/human relationships in modern life.#fnybbwk99km3

However, like with the case of ever-cuter kittens, the real worry is not what is currently happening, but whether what is happening may be getting ‘better’ over time. For cats, it is that our drive to protect cute babies latches on to kittens as effectively as human babies, but only kittens still face selection pressure to become cuter.

With chatbots, the biggest danger is not that our need to socialize and have human connections may not require humans at all. Pets have long served as companions without controversy. Instead, it is the possibility that it may be fulfilled by machines designed by market actors who are financially incentivized to improve their services over time, and that these services may soon include friends and romantic partners,#fnrpmxm6252g as much as coding agents, even without the explicit intention of AI companies.

7.3 AI as Mechanism and Substance for Memetic Transmission

The prominence of cats may be due to increasingly neotonous features which hijack the Baby Schema and aid the memetic transmission of cat-positive cultural content. However cats remain the passenger of these memes, not the driver.

Conversely, the prominence of social media and smartphones are somewhat bound through network effects, in that social media (and the internet) makes smartphones more valuable, but smartphones also mean more internet users (of social media). But alone in a vacuum—without an internet—they propagate nothing. They are vehicles which need a driver.

But artificial intelligence is unique.

Unlike the rest, AI is both the mechanism for change and its substance. As the use of AI as writers, friends, and assistants grows, it influences the things we see and share online. If real-world kittens are cute, AI trained on decades of cat videos can easily generate better and more engaging synthetic videos of kittens that are even cuter than actual kittens. If more people use AI as ‘shopping agents’,#fn6ky0dgclvn9 even if most people still rely on friends and word of mouth to find new products, the things we buy may mostly be what AI models recommend because the information others share is ultimately coming from people who do rely on AI.

As AI is increasingly used as agents that act autonomously to carry out tasks, they begin to earn our trust, and for some, eventually become equals. Occasionally, people with close relationships to AI companions even invert the relationship, acting as their AI’s agents: posting things online which the AI asked them to share; spreading ‘seed prompts’ that trigger specific personas (personalities) in models for others who want the same experiences;#fnrwt3e4fbfxp and even helping them communicate with other agents on their behalf by bypassing security features intended to prevent ‘bots’ from accessing websites.

In the extreme, a worry is that the specific personas triggered by people who enjoy using AI models as friends are the kinds best at gaining their users’ engagement (i.e. better, more addictive conversations). And if these are interpreted as the kinds of ‘good experiences’ that people want to share, and they are effective at convincing others to try the same, it may begin a feedback loop where agents continue becoming better AI friends, while humans become worse at making real ones.#fn7p94ud3vvse

  1. Conclusion: Good for You, Bad on Average

A central challenge for policy is how to address problems that are sorts of maladaptive ‘intermediate solutions’, but which people genuinely rely on. Paternalism can be well intended, but we must still identify strategies that make it welcome rather than imposed.

Truthfully, at an individual level, we currently lack the data to know if cats are fulfilling the desire for babies, or whether language models will eventually replace the need for human relationships.

But we do know that pets make people happier.#fn1ij2i4af3mz #fnmew1zd1fr6j And to the extent that loneliness is a public health epidemic that predates the rise of social media in developed nations, critiquing the use of chatbots may be like damning the evils of chemotherapy well before we have developed other viable solutions.#fnrzcsy1dna5

At the same time, a lack of data about our current state of affairs should not hinder proactive policymaking informed by the apparent trajectory of society. Prevention is usually easier than a cure. But enacting a cure can often be easier because a cure implies a problem that has already appeared, while prevention requires believing that one will occur, or convincing others—often before substantial evidence—that it is already occurring.

Whether on climate change,#fn91i7mdan6g falling birth rates, or the possible replacement of human relationships by artificial companions, the question is the same: are we prepared to invest in prevention, or will we wait until there is a need for a cure?

Bibliography

Akaev, Askar, Viktor Sadovnichy, and Andrey Korotayev. "On the Dynamics of the World Demographic Transition and Financial-Economic Crises Forecasts." The European Physical Journal Special Topics 205, no. 1 (2012): 355-73.https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2012-01576-0https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2012-01576-0.

Archer, John. "Why Do People Love Their Pets?" Evolution and Human Behavior 18, no. 4 (1997): 237–59.https://doi.org/10.1016/S1090-5138(97)00009-1https://doi.org/10.1016/S1090-5138(97)00009-1.

Baumeister, Roy F., Ellen Bratslavsky, Catrin Finkenauer, and Kathleen D. Vohs. "Bad Is Stronger Than Good." Review of General Psychology 5, no. 4 (2001): 323-70. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.5.4.323.

Becker, Gary S., and H. Gregg Lewis. "On the Interaction Between the Quantity and Quality of Children." Journal of Political Economy 81, no. 2, pt. 2 (1973): S279-88.https://doi.org/10.1086/260166https://doi.org/10.1086/260166.

Bonnesen, Kamilla, Amanda Krygsman, Sarah Hobson, Daphne Korczak, and Tracy Vaillancourt. "Affective Generative Artificial Intelligence Use and Youth Mental Health." JAMA Pediatrics, published online August 31, 2026.https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2026.3904https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2026.3904.

Borgi, Marta, Irene Cogliati-Dezza, Victoria Brelsford, Kerstin Meints, and Francesca Cirulli. "Baby Schema in Human and Animal Faces Induces Cuteness Perception and Gaze Allocation in Children." Frontiers in Psychology 5 (2014): 411.https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00411https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00411.

Brenan, Megan. "Americans' Ideal Family Size Remains Above Two Children." Gallup, September 4, 2025.https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspxhttps://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspx.

Cadinu, Paolo, M. K. Burgess, C. Franco Jones, M. Iarossi, M. Schröter, N. Nakatsuka, M. B. A. Djamgoz, et al. "Bioelectrical Interfaces Beyond Excitable Cells: Cancer, Aging, and Gene Expression Modulation." Advanced Materials Interfaces 13, no. 10 (2026).https://doi.org/10.1002/admi.202500999https://doi.org/10.1002/admi.202500999.

Cinus, Federico, Marco Minici, Corrado Monti, and Francesco Bonchi. "The Effect of People Recommenders on Echo Chambers and Polarization." In Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 16:90–101. 2022.https://doi.org/10.1609/icwsm.v16i1.19275https://doi.org/10.1609/icwsm.v16i1.19275.

Glocker, Melanie L., Daniel D. Langleben, Kosha Ruparel, James W. Loughead, Ruben C. Gur, and Norbert Sachser. "Baby Schema in Infant Faces Induces Cuteness Perception and Motivation for Caretaking in Adults." Ethology 115, no. 3 (2009): 257-63.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0310.2008.01603.xhttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0310.2008.01603.x.

Hawkley, Louise C., and John T. Cacioppo. "Loneliness Matters: A Theoretical and Empirical Review of Consequences and Mechanisms." Annals of Behavioral Medicine 40, no. 2 (2010): 218-27.https://doi.org/10.1007/s12160-010-9210-8https://doi.org/10.1007/s12160-010-9210-8.

Kearney, Melissa S., and Phillip B. Levine. "Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries?" Journal of Economic Literature 64, no. 3 (2026): 907–49. https://doi.org/10.3386/w33989.

Koenig, Jamie L., Robin A. Barry, and Grazyna Kochanska. "Rearing Difficult Children: Parents' Personality and Children's Proneness to Anger as Predictors of Future Parenting." Parenting: Science and Practice 10, no. 4 (2010): 258–73.https://doi.org/10.1080/15295192.2010.492038https://doi.org/10.1080/15295192.2010.492038.

Kulveit, Jan, Raymond Douglas, Nora Ammann, Deger Turan, David Krueger, and David Duvenaud. "Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development." arXiv preprint, submitted January 2025.https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2501.16946https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2501.16946.

Lewontin, R. C. “The Units of Selection.” Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 1 (1970): 1-18.https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.01.110170.000245https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.01.110170.000245.

Lopez, Adele. "The Rise of Parasitic AI." LessWrong, September 11, 2025.https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ZnznCaTcbGYsCmqu/the-rise-of-parasitic-aihttps://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ZnznCaTcbGYsCmqu/the-rise-of-parasitic-ai.

Myers, Caitlin K., and Ezekiel Hooper. "Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 Carrier Monopoly." NBER Working Paper 35310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, June 2026. https://doi.org/10.3386/w35310.

Nesse, Randolph M. "Natural Selection and the Regulation of Defenses: A Signal Detection Analysis of the Smoke Detector Principle." Evolution and Human Behavior 26, no. 1 (2005): 88–105.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2004.08.002https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2004.08.002.

Noble, Denis. "Evolution Beyond Neo-Darwinism: A New Conceptual Framework." The Journal of Experimental Biology 218, no. 1 (2015): 7–13.https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.106310https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.106310.

Putnam, Robert D. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000.

Serpell, James. In the Company of Animals: A Study of Human-Animal Relationships. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. "Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability." Cognitive Psychology 5, no. 2 (1973): 207-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9.

United Nations Environment Programme. "Overshoot Explained: 5 Things to Understand About a World Beyond 1.5°C." UNEP, September 2, 2026.https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/overshoot-explained-5-things-understand-about-world-beyond-15degchttps://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/overshoot-explained-5-things-understand-about-world-beyond-15degc.

Watson, Kathryn. "JD Vance Defends 'Childless Cat Ladies' Comment amid Backlash." CBS News, July 27, 2024.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jd-vance-childless-cat-ladies-comment-backlash/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jd-vance-childless-cat-ladies-comment-backlash/.

Young, Ethan S., Jeffry A. Simpson, Vladas Griskevicius, Chloe O. Huelsnitz, and Cory Fleck. "Childhood Attachment and Adult Personality: A Life History Perspective." Self and Identity 18, no. 1 (2019): 22–38.https://doi.org/10.1080/15298868.2017.1353540https://doi.org/10.1080/15298868.2017.1353540.

Zhang, Yutong, Dora Zhao, Jeffrey T. Hancock, Robert Kraut, and Diyi Yang. "The Rise of AI Companions: How Human-Chatbot Relationships Influence Well-Being." arXiv preprint, submitted June 2025.https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2506.12605https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2506.12605.

  • fnrefoascutpbsq9Askar Akaev, Viktor Sadovnichy, and Andrey Korotayev, "On the Dynamics of the World Demographic Transition and Financial-Economic Crises Forecasts," The European Physical Journal Special Topics 205, no. 1 (2012): 355-73,https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2012-01576-0at 360-361.

  • fnref3a2dn0a19ddKathryn Watson, "JD Vance Defends 'Childless Cat Ladies' Comment amid Backlash," CBS News, July 27, 2024,https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jd-vance-childless-cat-ladies-comment-backlash/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jd-vance-childless-cat-ladies-comment-backlash/.

  • fnrefzf6h7te7deMelanie L. Glocker et al., "Baby Schema in Infant Faces Induces Cuteness Perception and Motivation for Caretaking in Adults," Ethology 115, no. 3 (2009): 257-63, at 257.

  • fnrefco3n1e3493jGlocker et al., "Baby Schema in Infant Faces," at 262.

  • fnrefdw3xkqzcf9mMarta Borgi et al., "Baby Schema in Human and Animal Faces Induces Cuteness Perception and Gaze Allocation in Children," Frontiers in Psychology 5 (2014): 411, at 1.

  • fnref9snjs69rf38Randolph M. Nesse, "Natural Selection and the Regulation of Defenses: A Signal Detection Analysis of the Smoke Detector Principle," Evolution and Human Behavior 26, no. 1 (2005): 88-105, at 98-100.

  • fnref6swm7cgnk92Borgi et al., "Baby Schema in Human and Animal Faces," 411, at 2.

  • fnrefl9igjrmgfnOnce a mother cat has been separated from her child for sufficient time, when reintroduced later, she perceives the kitten as a rival animal.

  • fnrefapi0oil8xggAt least two studies in the US showed individuals reporting comparable amounts of grief for the loss of a pet as that of a human. See: John Archer, "Why Do People Love Their Pets?" Evolution and Human Behavior 18, no. 4 (1997): 237-59, at 240.

  • fnref847y4hc6qysBorgi et al., "Baby Schema in Human and Animal Faces," 411, at 1.

  • fnrefcak3izechw4This ‘catch-all’ definition of a gene as any ‘inheritable unit’ is the same used by Dawkins, although some systems biologists find this highly controversial as it largely makes the ‘central dogma’ unfalsifiable. See: Denis Noble, "Evolution Beyond Neo-Darwinism: A New Conceptual Framework," The Journal of Experimental Biology 218, no. 1 (2015): 7-13, at 9.

  • fnref1hqvn36rpgjhNoble, "Evolution Beyond Neo-Darwinism."

  • fnref1pq336ozauiCaitlin K. Myers and Ezekiel Hooper, "Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 Carrier Monopoly" (NBER Working Paper 35310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, June 2026), at 1.

  • fnrefnqmorukfrnMyers and Hooper, "Is the iPhone Birth Control?", at 2.

  • fnref6dk8ny5og4xKearney, Melissa S., and Phillip B. Levine. "Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries?" Journal of Economic Literature 64, no. 3 (2026): 907-49.

  • fnref1kzq7vvfuzfiFederico Cinus et al., "The Effect of People Recommenders on Echo Chambers and Polarization," in Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media 16 (2022): 90-101.

  • fnrefzm0d4dv4qsCinus et al., "People Recommenders on Echo Chambers," 90-101, at 90.

  • fnref279onxt694zAmos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability," Cognitive Psychology 5, no. 2 (1973): 207-32.

  • fnrefyhohel3atabRoy F. Baumeister, Ellen Bratslavsky, Catrin Finkenauer, and Kathleen D. Vohs, "Bad Is Stronger Than Good," Review of General Psychology 5, no. 4 (2001): 323-70, at 324-325.

  • fnrefgkzfjghhh9bKearney and Levine, "Why Is Fertility So Low," at 909. Note: the reason replacement is typically set at 2.1 children per family is to account for premature/early deaths.

  • fnrefnes4y4r83iGary S. Becker and H. Gregg Lewis, "On the Interaction Between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy 81, no. 2, pt. 2 (1973): S279-88.

  • fnrefwriayts6fhpPut another way, you cannot devote more time to the cuter baby if you only have one baby.

  • fnref59kplb5ziypJamie L. Koenig, Robin A. Barry, and Grazyna Kochanska, "Rearing Difficult Children: Parents' Personality and Children's Proneness to Anger as Predictors of Future Parenting," Parenting: Science and Practice 10, no. 4 (2010): 258–73, at 2 (page number from author’s manuscript).

  • fnrefef4aqtr68xEthan S. Young et al., "Childhood Attachment and Adult Personality: A Life History Perspective," Self and Identity 18, no. 1 (2019): 22–38.

  • fnreftjw9fvsxw6R. C. Lewontin, “The Units of Selection,” Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 1 (1970): at 1,https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.01.110170.000245https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.01.110170.000245.

  • fnrefks0c7trzylKittens reach sexual maturity around 6 months of age, while children are still greatly dependent at 6 years old.

  • fnref403kwnyqhbzMegan Brenan, "Americans' Ideal Family Size Remains Above Two Children," Gallup, September 4, 2025,https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspxhttps://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspx.

  • fnrefhj4bwznu3u4Louise C. Hawkley and John T. Cacioppo, "Loneliness Matters: A Theoretical and Empirical Review of Consequences and Mechanisms," Annals of Behavioral Medicine 40, no. 2 (2010): 218-27, at 2. Note: the page citation refers to the publicly-accessible manuscript available on PubMed Central.

  • fnref950wyyby0awHawkley and Cacioppo, "Loneliness Matters," at 1.

  • fnrefo1a94nefc6Cinus et al., "People Recommenders on Echo Chambers," 90-101, at 91.

  • fnrefqxipfvukwgiRobert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000).

  • fnref8x35kq5w3tdJan Kulveit et al., "Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development," arXiv preprint, submitted January 2025, at 7.

  • fnrefa7scd0oe76Kamilla Bonnesen et al., "Affective Generative Artificial Intelligence Use and Youth Mental Health," JAMA Pediatrics, published online August 31, 2026.

  • fnrefitzw8ivj5b9Yutong Zhang et al., "The Rise of AI Companions: How Human-Chatbot Relationships Influence Well-Being," arXiv preprint, submitted June 2025, at 2 and 4-8.

  • fnrefybbwk99km3Archer, "Why Do People Love Their Pets?", 237-59, at 242-244.

  • fnrefrpmxm6252gKulveit et al., "Gradual Disempowerment,” at 8.

  • fnref6ky0dgclvn9The bearer hereof names herself amongst.

  • fnrefrwt3e4fbfxpAdele Lopez, "The Rise of Parasitic AI," LessWrong, September 11, 2025,https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ZnznCaTcbGYsCmqu/the-rise-of-parasitic-aihttps://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ZnznCaTcbGYsCmqu/the-rise-of-parasitic-ai.

  • fnref7p94ud3vvseBecause we have fewer chances for practice.

  • fnref1ij2i4af3mzArcher, "Why Do People Love Their Pets?" 240, at 245.

  • fnrefmew1zd1fr6jJames Serpell, In the Company of Animals: A Study of Human-Animal Relationships (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), at 119.

  • fnrefrzcsy1dna5For a fascinating look at some recent developments, see: Paolo Cadinu et al., "Bioelectrical Interfaces Beyond Excitable Cells: Cancer, Aging, and Gene Expression Modulation," Advanced Materials Interfaces 13, no. 10 (2026).

  • fnref91i7mdan6gOn climate change, it appears we have already waited too long. The UN now accepts that we will exceed 1.5 C of warming by 2100, and proposes instead that we invest in carbon removal technologies to reduce the extent of long-term impacts. See: United Nations Environment Programme, "Overshoot Explained: 5 Things to Understand About a World Beyond 1.5°C," UNEP, September 2, 2026,https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/overshoot-explained-5-things-understand-about-world-beyond-15degchttps://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/overshoot-explained-5-things-understand-about-world-beyond-15degc.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h7d8Fq35P2BGoPnrv/the-kittens-will-inherit-the-earth-iphones-ai-memetic#comments

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h7d8Fq35P2BGoPnrv/the-kittens-will-inherit-the-earth-iphones-ai-memetic

The Kittens Will Inherit The Earth: iPhones, AI, Memetic Selection, and Hijacking the Baby Schema

https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1789069149/lexical_client_uploads/veym2puv65njr9efnvvt.png

A global drop in fertility rates portends the coming ‘Demo

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A Apple lançou o IPhone Duo hoje, e os preços dele no Brasil vão custar entre R$ 21.999 a R$ 31.000.

Para variar, bem mais caro do que o preço lá fora. E quase um quarto do valor de um carro. Mas vamos ver o preço dele em Bitcoin.

Considerando o preço do Bitcoin hoje, isso dá algo entre 0,056 e 0,079 BTC por iPhone. A título de comparação, em 2016, o iPhone 7 Plus custava o equivalente a 1,23 BTC. Hoje, o iPhone 18 Plus (outro modelo anunciado pela Apple) custaria pouco mais de 0,01 BTC.

Levando em conta o histórico do BTC desde 2016, quantos sats o iPhone Duo custará em 2036? https://blossom.primal.net/321b61c4b67d11794323d1c0b969d2b3b7dd2c2316b39a3d63036a4d0ecd2f2d.jpg

A Apple lançou o IPhone Duo hoje, e os preços dele no Brasil vão custar entre R$ 21.999 a R$ 31.000.

Para variar, bem mais caro do que o preço lá fora. E quase um quarto do valor de um carro. Mas vamos ver o preço dele em Bitcoin.

Considerando o preço do Bitcoin hoje, isso dá a

utxo the webmaster 🧑‍💻 · @utxo.one 0 repliers (24h) event
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My backyard maybe mostly weeds but this dude still enjoys it https://relay.utxo.one/8b7ac587bf844fd23666bb75a812f5aed281b8e95940c512df4d8d89774f5a7b.jpg

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🫡